Basically, the Fed has run out of means to rescue the economy and x-chng traders see this. Middle class destruction has been going on and no signs of stopping yet. It will get even worse, like well under 80. Like 78-ish. But who knows for sure. And btw, I'm no economist neither..
The exchange rate is low on a lot of currencies. The pound is really in our favor at the moment (sorry to folks from the UK). I don't think I've ever seen it at $1.54/pound before, but it makes me much more optimistic about a trip to London next year.
I thought it had more to do with the yen's near-zero interest rate (easy borrow, easy repay) and safe haven status. Greece and Spain provided a nice one-two blow to the euro, which I assume also pushed more money towards the yen. Japan is the last country that wants a strong yen. It's making exports very expensive relative to competitors like Korea, decimating what's left of their export profits (once the money is repatriated) and accelerating China's rise (with its artificially weak currency) even faster, as their exports appear even cheaper due to the weak RMB.
Interesting analysis, guys. It sure as hell is making direct purchases from Japan (including EMS) very expensive!!
I remember when I first started getting japanese vinyl using middleman services 3 years ago the exchange was around 1.21 yen to the dollar. It's dropped like a stone ever since and doesn't look like it's ever going to go back. I still think it's going to get worse before it gets better. Side note: do you notice how YJA listings for sofubi are thinner than they use to be?
1) Yr coming to London? Great news...we'll have to meet up! 2) London is so arse-rapingly expensive that any exchange rate benefit will be lost as soon as you try something outrageous like travel on the Underground or eat somewhere other than a hot dog vendor.
yep I think we'll be over in September of next year for our 5 year anniversary! I think we'll probably have some group thing so I can meet a few of the UK folks. I think that old geezer from the North might come down, and I've yapped with jeb a bit about it. good times in London! let's just hope I can find some normally priced hotel or apartment accomodations...eesh. I thought NYC was expensive...
Speculation that the Japanese authorities will soon intervene in the foreign exchange on wednesday weakend the yen slightly. Let's hope it doesn't stay with speculation...
Well BoJ Shirakawa is coming to Jackson Hole to take directions from his masters, so you can expect it once he returned.
Interesting. I wonder if that's fluff (like most "analysis" and predictions of f/x movements) or if so many businesses complained or went belly up that the gov finally decided to act. A whole host of Asian gov's play a big part in their currency levels. In the face of that, it's a bit surprising that Japan (with its $1 trillion in foreign exchange reserves (second only to China)) has sat on the sidelines and done nothing.
So seeing the middleman's exchange rate slip to 79 cents per one yen I thought I might research if there is an end in sight. This guy seems to think so: http://worldcurrencywatch.com/2010/12/0 ... e-of-2011/ I really hope he is right. It sucked when it dipped below 100, it got bad when went below 90, but really below 80 now? If it doesn't start reversing soon I'm hanging up this hobby. One good thing I see the sellers (at least for stuff I'm into) on YJA are pricing lower and lower.
If you end up meeting up with Jeb and Josh I'll have to make sure I'm there to represent the real deal! . . . I wouldn't want you getting the wrong impression from the Brit wannabes!
looking like October might be trip time. Also Chris, it has been noted that the yen will come back a bit, but the forecast hasn't been as good as that guy states. I'm not sure where he's getting his data from, but I follow some NY Times and Bloomberg analysts and they're stating that it might be back in the high 80s by June. I don't know how a spike to 100 would happen by the end of the year unless the governments get together to figure out some plan and I doubt that will happen. We'll see. I'm not holding my breath.
this sucks. you win something on YJA for ¥5,000 yen, you're initially thinking SCORE! then the Celga invoice for $100 comes and you think WTF? plus another $25 for shipping. so fucked.
Funny you say that, because I was about to purchase something on Mandadrake thinking it was a good deal (2years it would have been) but when I did the currency convertor, it was like $100 more than expected.
Good time to stop buying. Unless it's listed in dollars. With the yen getting stronger every day you never know what you're going to end up with cost wise. I do notice Mandarake and YJA sellers listing items lower but after you factor in the exchange rate and shipping it's really not much of a deal.
this sucks. after describing how shitty it is to buy on Celga right now with the exchange rate, I won two auctions for 5,000 yen. fucking two hundred dollars later and waiting for the fucking $50 shipping invoice. someone remind me NOT to shop on YJA right now.
