As a lot of you know I follow pricing and demand of many toys very closely. I have actually made a couple of attempts to create a model that could predict pricing of toys in the aftermarket (and you thought you were geeky). My point is I have spent a lot of time trying to understand the how and why of pricing of toys in the aftermarket. I have even manipulated one toy market to test a theory. In the last month I have come to believe that the bottom is about to drop out on most if not all of the western vinyl market. I think it actually started to happen a few months ago. I think we are about to enter a more accelerated part of the down turn. SDCC will increase selling pressure in the next few months. Many people will take losses on figures trying to raise cash for SDCC. This means people will have less money to spend at the convention than planned and they will be a little more apprehensive about buying. Most western vinyl releases are not selling out fast and many do not sell out at all. People seem less willing to pay crazy aftermarket prices for figures on eBay. Many “flippers” (people who do not collect toys but only buy for resale) have been burned in the past few months and seem to have disappeared. The SDCC exclusives are weaker than in years past. Most companies are just releasing a new color way of existing designs that you can still buy for close to retail. Many other companies are release new figures that, so far, people do not seem that interested in. Some companies are still trying to release the toys they showed at SDCC last year. If SDCC is lackluster I think the momentum will turn very quickly after the show and you will see people start to sell off the higher prices and harder to find figures they have. Once this happens and people see prices dropping on prized figures I think you will see panic selling start in a big way. I am not saying every figure will drop in price (I do think there is about a 20% chance of that happening) but I do think a lot of toys will find a more sustainable pricing level in the next 6 months. This is good news for people sitting on collections they actually enjoy because we should be able to get some deals on all kinds of toys in the near future. However, if you are like me and you have a closet full of stuff you don’t want but have been to lazy to sell, it is time to get off your ass and get rid of the toys you can live without even if you have to take a loss on them. Something is better than nothing! I want to know what you think will happen the toy aftermarket over the next 3-6 months. (I don’t include Japanese vinyl in any of this because it seems much more volatile and harder to forecast pricing.)
I no longer spend any time over at the other board, but found it really interesting that someone here recently commented that the B/S/T forum over there had basically gone to hell. In a lot of ways it seems that this too could be a reflection of what you are implying here. It seems the market has simply come to the point where both the huge influx of buyers/collectors and sheer volume of toys have caused a meltdown of sorts. For reasons having very little to do with this potential "Western Vinyl Meltdown", I thankfully sold a majority of my western stuff off months ago to fund JP. That said, the remaining pieces that I have tried to unload have been next impossible to get rid of.
Very interesting...I'd have to agree with most everything you've set out here...I do think people will still excited/spend big money at SDCC despite the (so far) weak lineup of releases. I too have some stuff (not a closet full!) that I should hurry up and unload. Any thoughts anyone on what Western vinyl may retain higher values? Just curious as to what factors may make a certain piece retain value after this bubble bursts...rarity? the artist involved? etc.
I think rarity and artist are the two biggest factors in the long run. How rarity effects pricing of any colorway is effected by the total numbers of any sculpt (all colorways of a figure combined).
I think you might be right! There were a couple of factors that made me quite collecting western vinyl. I will be dumping a chunk on ebay this weekend. It will be interesting to see how correct you are. If you actually come up with a probability model for vinyl that is correct, and you are that good? Then you will have to hook me up with one based on the projections of natural gas futures! Are you going to SDCC?
i agree glenn i started selling off stuff i could live without a few months ago. something is better than nothing. one thing that i do see happening...the really HOT figures out there may end up being higher priced than before. if only a few figures will retain their value or increase by several times, i could see them as being the more sought after of it all and people willing to drop higher amounts than before it was a fun ride while it lasted though
I had a gut feeling about this last year and it also coeincided w/my lust for JP vinyl..That is when i sold 99% of my western and moved on..Besides the market was getting saturated w/flips w/western vinyl too...
If I paid retail for figures then i'm happy. However the recent drop in prices would have upset me if i'd paid inflated after-market prices. I try not to buy with the intention of selling at an appreciated price or at least it holding its original value.
No doubt about it, I think that last push of "western" vinyl around the holidays was rediculous and marked a definate beginning of the end. More hype than substance, too much of the same (boring IMO) and crap quality. There are pieces you can't give away now!
Interesting point about the JP segment being harder to predict. There are some things that remain predictable about some of the JP toys, suchas the release of rarer variants tied to scheduled conventions and toyshows. Your overall point about Japanese toy prices (at least how they apply to US collectors) is sound though - plain old scarcity will keep prices stable if not climbing in most cases.
I think this is my main gripe with so called 'western vinyl', I would buy a dun ny if the design was cool, but the recent QC has been horrible, so i'll keep my cash. I still want a couple more [expletive deleted]'s.
I myself never collected western vinyl or had much of an interest in following it. therefore, I don't know too much about the market for it in general (what was sought after, rare, pricey, etc.) that said, I would like to add that I think it probably is declining, as most toy trends seem to over time. I hate to be one of those people that thinks things can't last forever, but people's tastes change, and unless there is a constant stream of new, fresh releases, a lot of them are going to move on. that happens with everything though, not just western vinyl. companies see money to be made and flood the market with half ass, non-exciting releases. most major toy markets have suffered in similar ways - star wars, wrestling figures, marvel/dc, mcfarlane, etc. the companies either switch focus and try to appeal to the remaining die hard collectors or come up with new lines that are more what the fans want and gain some commercial success again. I knew that when everybody was trying to have a line of bearbrick-like mini figures designed by artists that eventually people would get sick of all that. after a while it starts to all look the same to anyone who isn't the most devoted fan.
I think frank sums it up in the "Is it time to silence ourselves?" thread. Alot of toys don't really have any relevance... so they might look cool, but cannot be an "investment". I can see Kaws, Baseman and Biskup being sought in the future.. but nothing much more. You can compare it to comics... the first appearance of say.. Wolverine or Superman will always be sought and command big $$, but the first appearance Cable (which once commanded good $$) is worth hardly anything. I also don't see how SB can have any long-term value because you guys desire them just because they look cool... it has to be more than that. I am still looking for Obake with clear sheets... please, let me know if you ahve one you want to get rid of. Although I've been collecting a short period of time... If i even get slightly bored of the piece, i sell it immediately (so my collection really isn't that big). sorta like playing musical chairs with toys (i also don't want to get stuck with everything when the music stops).[/i]
I have to disagree w/ Skylar on the Marvel/DC figures.Ive been collecting Marvel Legends since the first series, and am still collecting to this day.Yes, they have had some weak releases, but overall they manage to keep people coming back(ie BAF series).The thing about Marvel Legends and the new DC line that is much like Marvel legends is that you have kids, who just want to play w/ the toy, buying them and you have the collectors hunting them down also.The only thing that could kill ML IMHO is hasbro changing the focus of the line to more child oriented stuff(ie action features)I think the Mc Farlane era is dying down because their focus is all over the place and they carry the 12.99-14.99 price tag.
some of those points are why I don't think people should pay ridiculous amounts for toys just because they feel like they need them right now (I can't say I haven't done it though). I don't collect toys as an investment, I collect them because I like how they look. however, if I like how they look now, I will probably still like how they look in 6 months, and the craze for them might be over and they might be a lot cheaper. I'm not the type to get sick of old toys and sell them off just to get new ones. I rarely sell anything, and if I do it's usually because I stumbled onto a double or got a piece in better condition. it's also why for the most part I generally like toys that are of characters from movies/tv/games/comics/etc. that way there is something attached to them, which is probably why I like them in the first place. it's not just about them looking cool.
I agree w/ the point that the toys has to be backed up w/ something(comicbooks,movies,an artsit who actually sells paintings) for them to be an investment.But if your not interested in any type of investment then it shouldnt matter.
this sounds more like an investors point of view than a true collector do I care if my silver spray skullwing drops $100, fuck no
Couple more things: I was perusing the Action Figures section on the bay last night, and I must say that I was somewhat surprised at the variety of figures that still seemed to be very sought after. Of course tons of star wars but also I saw "rare" Hulk Hogan variants going for hundreds of dollars and while Spawn is worthless, the McFarlane sports figures seem to command big money (at least the rare, variant, error etc...). Thus while the "western vinyl craze" is certainly going to die down significantly, the "market" does seem to support several small markets if not one giant "Western" mkt that encompasses a signif portion of the general public. I think a more sustainable reality are these various niches: JP stuff, robot collectors, comic book figures, star wars, sports related figures, anime, mini busts, etc. etc...Within each mkt, people can collect, trade, have fun...It's just that sometimes one particular mkt may blow up and get really hot for awhile (star wars, comic books etc.) and that's when a lot of the craziness ensues...
well Marvel Legends is a perfect example of what I was saying about companies refocusing ideas toward collectors/what fans want. for years we were inundated with countless amounts of toys from every incarnation of X-men and plenty of Spider Mans that never really existed in comic form (I hate when they make like Scuba Spider Man, or Jet Pack Spider Man, or guys have motorcycles and all kinds of stuff that just never was). Marvel Legends is totally different and made exactly for people like you, people who got sick and tired of countless amounts of garbage super hero figures. they have a standard of quality and that is why they are so sought after. and I think they do put out new, exciting stuff (I don't collect them, but I know they put out some oddball characters, which I think is fantastic). and yeah, I don't collect toys for investment. and that's not why I buy toys that are backed by characters, just for the record. I buy them because I love the characters!
I agree. However, I think a majority (whether or not we like to admit it) of us would like our collections to have some sort of monetary value. Sorta like that band you liked before they got big... and you like to brag that you heard of them first and when they get too big, you complain that they sold out.
I always miss the mark with bands, and the ones I like fade into obcurity. I get smug points but everyone thinks I like shit music.
honestly, and it's up to you whether or not you want to believe me (I know some people probably just won't), but I could really care less if my collection was worthless. it's going to look awesome on my shelves just the same, and that's what's worth it to me. I don't ever plan on selling them. I know lots of people think/say that too and then do. but I've been there done that with toys and trying to have some big valuable collection and bought lots of stuff over the years that I really didn't care about. I even owned a comic/toy store for a few years and that was my business essentially. I'm over the caring about how much any of it is worth. I wish that some of it was worthless. maybe then I could pick up things I want real cheap instead of things being way out of my price range!
Knewman, for the sake of clarity could you please define "Western vinyl?" Does "Western" refer to where the item was sold, or the artist, or both? For instance, which qualifies as "Western vinyl" here: Woodring's Mantra (American artist, Japanese market), or Woodring's Dorbel (American artist, American market), or neither?
