Hey: Noticed that Forbes magazine has every few months a one page, buy, sell, hold section dealing with which collectibles (vintage cars, wines, fine watches) etc. are hot to either buy, sell, or hold. Wondering if anyone had a similar concept scheme for vinyl. I was noticing that there have been several listings domestically (i.e. ebay for 10 inch Kikaider 01 so I would think that would be a hold, rather than sell or buy as the price is likely lower now, but still high) mostly wondering what people out there were thinking of as current good buys, from a scarcity to obtain in the future perspective, likely higher prices in the future if you delay on buying now, and what to sell now, given the market.
Not sure what you are meaning by that exactly, but if it is as it sounds, then I think you are this hobby for completely the wrong reasons. Buy stuff you like. That is about the only rule that matters. We are all losing ridiculous sums of money spending on silly toys most people don't understand. If you aren't doing it for the love of them, then I would suggest there are many other opportunities to make money (and more efficiently). I would never pick up a toy with the intent of it going up in value and making a profit in the future. But good luck to those who want to try - and yes, we have seen them. But don't expect tips on flipping here. Most of use would Sell only when it is becomes very necessary, something changes in your collection, or you are offering a nice hookup to a fellow collector. I would also say this holds to collecting anything - not just vinyl toys. I would never base what I have on the 'market' at any given moment.
No, my intent, like the intent of the Forbes listing is STRICTLY for collecting, not dealing, it is a means to identify what items you would best be served buy now, as waiting to add them to your collection later will likely cost you much more, and they are likely hot, so picking them up later, will be more difficult. The hold and sell functions indicate what items are currently hot, or not, similar to the other post about YJ prices on many items being bid up by Mandrake etc. Its not a methodology to try to sell, ( at least the way I interpret it) its a methodology on how best to allocate your resources to items you want to buy, given current buying conditions, and projecting future market conditions to indicate when might be a better time to jump in on a more sought after piece you have yet to pull the trigger on.
Well, for the large majority, I would say that there is realy just retail pricing, or aftermarket pricing. Of course, if you can afford it, and think you might want a toy at some point, by far the best bet is to get it when it comes out at retail. It is 'safe' pricing. After that, I would argue that prices can go up or down, but no matter which way they trend, they will stay more or less the same. i.e. if a toy that is unpopular with the hypez crowd, say an amazing M1 Mechagoji or the like, you might see them for sale for half of the original retail, but it will stay roughly the same range. And on the other side, if you are talking about a very popular toy, like a PK or 'designer' toy, it will immediately demand more in the resale market, but again, will reach a plateau value and stay the same (with the rare exception of ballers who have no financial limits). Vintage is the same. Prices generally go up with time because of inflation, conversions, etc., but they are generally stable considering the long term timeframe we are talking about. In other words, while there can be a range on pricing, I don't think this is a market per se that is susceptible to fluctuations you need to plan your collecting around. The best thing to is just shop wisely and not jump on the bandwagon right when something becomes popular, because obvuously that will cost you. Most of us play the long game, and as I am sure some of the old guard will tell you, you see everything come and go over time. Patience and research is key. I can't say that enough; something a lot of new folks to the hobby don't get (not directed at you).
Buy what you like, not what you think it 'might' be worth in the long term! It sounds very much like you want to be told exactly what the latest hot shit is and the best investment for the future! 5 posts in and you may have just shot yourself in the foot!
Yeah! "Let's have a thread where we write down the hypezt and dopezt of kaiyuz so others can know what to buy and where and at what margin to flip!"
Was not my intent to start any issues, I just wanted to have a discussion, I am a collector, not a dealer, I have never sold anything I have bought (but have traded doubles) Please delete this thread if it goes against the sprit of this board, that was never my intent. I just was riffing on what I thought was the similar concept to the price increase thread on vinyls, with hopefully some insight on why things go the way they go to make more intelligent purchases with limited resources.
I didn't read seikoloco's post as being particularly negative. Well, maybe at first I did. But once I finished reading, I sorta got what he's getting at: if you're a vintage vinyl collector with limited resources, it could potentially be helpful to share with other collectors which vintage toys are trending "hot" at the moment. These would be the toys *to avoid* purchasing in the short term. Like, I bought my Jumbo Spazer for what felt at the time was more than its market value. Maybe 50% over what I thought the value was. But the sheer rarity (and the fact that I had enough savings for it) prompted me to go ahead and buy it. But I inadvertently broke the market on them because as soon as I announced I got it, no fewer than four more Spazers showed up on eBay and Y!J...all of which went for TWICE what I had paid. Did those buyers get screwed? Maybe. But I think the point is more that collectors who *might* have been able to afford a Spazer at the previous market value SURE AS FUCK would never be able to afford one now. And we've seen this before here. No offense to anyone in particular, but there are a LOT more vintage vinyl collectors raving about this stuff here than there were 2-3 years ago. I certainly love all the attention...but this is our own little flavor of the hype machine. It's pretty clear that prices on certain vintage lines (Astro fucking Mu, anyone?) have gotten a little outta control...most likely because of us... So I think it's a fair question to ask what ISN'T over-hyped these days. Of course, by even discussing the answer to that question, we're drawing attention to those lines! So even if the question is fair, the answer is a lose-lose situation!
Yeah I get what you are saying Sanjeev, and partially agree with you. It is true that sometimes talking about a toy can spark more interest in it, and we touched on that in the other discussion. But maybe it is because I am shopping around for different things, but I haven't really seen an 'explosion' in popularity after a 'western' collector brings something up. There are a few cases (e.g. Mechanikong) where popularity has risen relatively randomly in recent years, but they were also always popular toys. Astro Mu though is a whole other ballgame. And I dont think it can become anymore hyped or overpriced than it is now. I love the line, but those are some crazy prices. I guess what I am trying to say is, if I mention I picked up a Bullmark Shugaron, not many folks are going to even know what it is, or care, and those who do probably already are aware of him/know he is out there, so for the most part I would say that the market would not be affected at all. Similarly if you are talking about some of the tokusatsu heros, sure, some guys like Barom-1 attract a lot of attention and inspire people to the hunt, but the diehard vintage folks know what stuff is out there and stay the course. There are definitely spurts for some pricing, but especially on jumbos, which you were mentioning. That market is nuts, in the US and Japan. There is a lot of crossover appeal, and some guys just throw money at something to say they own it. I don't know. I would love a T-28 Chokinzoku, but I am not going to fight with other buyers to pay 1500$ for one. Just different collecting attitudes.
In furtherance of my comments above, I think there is another interesting factor that may explain your point about prices currently. There appears to be a seller on ebay US that is offering what I deem many cool items (no reference to names) and starts out the auction at basically a very low price, sometimes a dollar if I recall, and eventually it gets bid up to a fair or high side price. I think that's fine, but I think one of the factors, at least from my perspective that tempts me to enter into the auction, even as it goes higher is gee whiz, this started out so low, now its so (relatively high) I must not realize how rare this is, or when am I going to get another chance at it starting out so low, this must be the market right now & my best chance to get it cheap, considering the start price, so it think it kind of feeds me to bid, because I am thinking, if this is how it started (low) and now its X10 that, this must be what it is going for, and if I want it, this is probably one of my better chances to pull the trigger, after all. Not sure that is true, but it kind of warps my thinking at least due to the history of the auction and what it means to the price I think I can get away with and still get the figure I wanted.
Vintage on ebay is a crapshoot. Sometimes, but rarely, there is a bargain or reasonable price there, but more often than not, the competition by collectors from a market with less access to the toys just drives the price up. Basically, going through YJA takes a lot of time and patience, and costs more for the service usually, and it might take years even to find something you are after - but there is just more available from there to keep the prices more or less 'regular' (note that that does not necessarily mean reasonable). A quick glance at the YJA thread shows you how expensive auctions can be. But for the more common or general figures, it is pretty good. People are willing to pay a bit more from ebay for the convenience, immediacy, and ease of communication I think. That, and there is a relative dearth of vintage vinyl in North America by comparison.
I think with vintage you have to always factor in that the collectors 9 times out of 10 are playing for keeps. Translation: it's not going to get resold later, and thus one more toy out of circulation. There's no "I'll wait till the next one comes out in glow or a different color scheme" like new toys, and as we all know some variants of vintage are rarer than others. Given the infrequency some of the toys appear for sale adds to the willingness to go higher on bids also. Some vintage collectors have been at it for decades, and imagine waiting all that time for that one elusive toy to appear for sale? Now factor in how many other vintage guys might be looking for it? You can see where bids can get out of control quick. There is just so much to consider, my best advice (and I'm relatively new to vintage) is auction watch, do your own comparisons, and ask people that have been doing it for awhile. Just because one auction goes for a lot does not mean they all will. It's easy to overspend. Like Sanjeev said we're our own worst enemies here sometimes, and simply posting a pic of a toy can sometimes bring auctions out of the woodwork for crazy prices. Good thing about vintage though there is such a wide range of toys that deals can be found. Not everything has to be super expensive.
My only advice on vintage is that nothing goes up forever. A lot of people think this is not true for vintage toys, but I disagree. If you look at 'real' antiques, prices fluctuate greatly depending on whether or not people are into the particular style or type of item at the time, and based on other global factors (e.g., economic downturns or upswings). (When I say 'real antiques', I mean pottery, silverware, etc.) By the vintage toy theory, antiques should stay at a level price forever once they have hit that level, and arguably they should be a much more stable market than toys. And to an extent they are a more stable market. But prices do not level off and antiques also fluctuate in price over time. I suspect that 15-20 years from now, we will see a completely different landscape for 'hot' vintage toys.
^^This is the part I wonder about. No, I'm not worried that my vintage vinyl collection will be (monetarily) worthless when I'm old. I'm in this game because these toys remind me of a simpler time when I used to watch Creature Double Feature every Saturday morning with my pop. So they'll always be priceless to me. But I *am* curious whether vintage Japanese toys (chogokin as well as sofubi) will attain that evergreen "real antique" status. It certainly seems that the early 50's-era non-character tins (think Gang of Five) have reached that status. And then some. On one hand, the later generation of character toys were made in much larger quantities...and often, they survived the test of time longer than delicate zenmai. So the sheer inventory available on the open/after market may prevent chogokin or sofubi from showing up in fine auction houses a hundred years from now. But then again, the reason there's so much more inventory of sofubi/chogokin (as opposed to zenmai) is because these were character toys. With media (comics and cartoons) to "advertise" them, there was likely a much higher demand due to that accessibility. Such a pop cultural phenomenon may be enough to propel these things into "real antique-hood"...
I couldn't agree with you more. This is my philosophy also. Whether it has a large or small price tag attached to it is irrelevant for me in collecting terms. I buy and collect the toys because I love them. If your collection starting point is putting a dollar $$value on them you are going in to it for the wrong reason. This aspect of collecting toys I find rather vulgar. Despite having spent huge amounts of $ on my collection I DON"T CARE if they go UP or DOWN in $ value. The value of the individual toy outweighs any $$ factor.
