The fall in the Aussie dollar has seriously stemmed my toy buying. Its been falling lately but now : As of today the Aussie $ is buying US $ .68. My Saviour was the Yen... but now that has fallen.. in a... hole: With the Aussie dollar buying .68.23 Yen. Its just too expensive to play. The last few years has seen a rise in the Australian dollar bringing us, atleast within throwing distance of the blessed U.S. The Aussie dollar has been trading anywhere from .80 and only recently .98 But now with the world economy in freefall, the Aussie dollar drops and the US rises. I dont get it. Now I am sure there is some (fiscal) rationale to it all..... it just irks me, is all. Please dont take this as a stab at my cool stateside mates. Its an economics thing.
I imagine the situation for the AUD and NZD may continue to deteriorate, with capital outflows following the lowering of once-attractive interest rates. AUD rates for CODs have fallen to 5% and NZD to 6.25%. That's still quite good, but the more those rates fall, the more foreign investors will pull out in search of juicier returns. OZ was reportedly keeping the rates high since they were freaked about inflation. But with commodities falling, along with the global economy, it makes no sense to keep rates that high. I haven't seen foreign outflow numbers, but I would guess they're having at least some impact on the rates. The NZD's fall in particular is shocking. Only thing I've seen more insane is the Won's fall against the USD (more than 30% over the last year.) In terms of the yen, a 100/1 rate is gutting, since I'm flying to Japan in two weeks. Fortunately I partially covered my ass by buying some yen a couple months back at 109/1. BTW, if the yen/USD rates stays like this for several months (and kaiju producers don't reduce prices to bring themselves in line with actual oil prices), I wouldn't be surprised to see new RxH and SB figures selling for $70 @ US retail.
..forecasts of down to $ .60 possibly in the following year. Time to get into the export game. I have some cool toys for ya' all soon. Problem is I cant afford Jap vinyl so maybe some mandurah mud or grass tree resin sculpts. Could be worse...you could be an Aussie Kaiju collector or worse yet a Kiwi. Those poor bloody Kiwis always gettin the short end of the stick...Beautiful country by the way I highly recomend it for anyone looking for a holiday.
It sure could be worse than 100/1, but that would devastate Japan's export driven economy. They'd be right back into a recession. Actually I doubt the BOJ will stand for this current rate for very long. I don't think kaiju makers can afford to let prices rise anymore (because of the way it would affect demand), so $70 for a standard figure seems unlikely to happen. We've already gone from $50 (2005) to $55 to $60 and now to $65 for a number of fight figures. Having said that. for a long long time we were hovering around a 110/1 rate. So the current rate equates to a 10% pay cut for SOMEBODY along the chain, or (more likely) a 3-5% cut shared by a number of players. But that's if the current rate holds for a number of months, which I hope it won't!
Same situation here in Canada, the US dollar now buys 1.12860 CAD verus 1.0548840 just eight days ago.
Anyone remember a few months ago when the rates went just south of 100? I sure do. An Auction I was bidding on ended and the rate was like 93 or 94 yen/$1. I'm happy with anything from 100-110/$1 really. I was given yen for my graduation and that was purchased at a decent exchange rate, but I'm going in March. I imagine it will be crappy then, but a hobby is a hobby and if I have to cut back and get one less figure, so be it. I think it might take a while to see a price increase of $10 per figure, but I can definitely see an increase coming our way soon. I'm used to anraku and other harder to find items costing a little more anyway, but it's all about being focused and not buying everything in sight because of hype. I think the true worrying aspect is going to be when all of the major banks cut credit limits. What's going to happen to all of those people with balances close to the limits? The bank will cut the limit, the consumer will be over the limit, the bank has free reign to increase your interest rate (in many cases it's around 23%) and the consumer will have an impossible time trying to pay that balance down.
Rates barely touched 99/1 a few months ago and stayed there for just a handful of days. Anyone charged 93 or 94/1 was getting jacked by an intermediary. Here's a look at the last 5 years of USD/yen rates. The chart is a couple days behind, but you can see we're already far far below the 5 year average. Hopefully this will soon become just another spike ready to fall. Nobody's happy with a super strong yen. Fall yen, fall! http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDJ ... X;range=5y
The Aussie dollar has been so high for so long. Makes my visits back home a painful experience every time.
You youngin's are lucky. I remember in the old days $1 = 78 yen and it stayed around there for a while.
I'm in the same boat, the mexican peso has fallen from 10~11pesos x1 dlls to 13~14 pesos per dollar in just one week 30% more increase in prices too much for me I just have to slow down collecting
Gotta get our kicks some other way hey! So you live in mexico..Whereabouts? Whats it like living there? Ive always wanted to go there.
The U.S. falters, maybe a recession but the U.S dollar and the Yen (which is also on the verge) strengthens against everything else. I understand that the Aussie economy partially relies on shipping primary supplies to China to turn into products to sell to the mother of all consumers. So a stronger U.S dollar can buy more, and in doing so supports ours and others economies. But I dislike how it seems that in order for the U.S economy to survive/thrive, other currencies must suffer. Any economists on the board that can tell me different?
Well, looked at frankly, a number of Asian currencies have probably been significantly undervalued against the USD for years, giving their exports an unfair competitive advantage. I'm not sure if non-USD currencies are "suffering" now. Some are moving up and others down against the greenback, and not at all in regional blocks (at least not in Asia). The reason the current US crisis is making others suffer is because the US buys just so much damned stuff. I don't know how much OZ sells to the USA, but a weaker AUD vs USD is certainly great news for OZ->USA exports. The flip side is a weak AUD will make you suffer dearly on imported commodities which are valued in USD. And from what little I know about your country's montary policy, inflation is something you're rather passionate about trying to control. So there are a couple main points. First, fluctuations in the USD are not at all part of a conspiracy to boost the US economy, since the greenback is all over the place these days. Also, higher or lower rates vs the USD are a double-edged sword, since you can't have both attractive exports and cheap imported commodities. BTW the USD is also a haven when other commodities underperform, so the flight to the USD, or flights from it, though often contrary to market conditions and economic fundamentals in the US, can have a major impact on exchange rates. It's all a big mess, which is why I'm increasingly interested in the concept of a single world currency.
Thanks Andy for your concise analysis. Very interesting concept. The "free market" scares me. Im not a big reader but have you read George Monbiots, Age of consent? Please check it out. I am understating this, but it has some very promising points.
well I live in baja just 2 hours driving from San Diego CA. here in ensenada, is pretty cool little town, we can buy beer at 18!!!!! have you ever been in East LA? if not just go there and you will be almost in mexico!!!
Just got a report from an analyst today, he had been having a pretty good macro-economic analysis tracking record which made him become a billionaire in the last 20 yrs. He mentioned and hinted not to buy US long term bonds coz the interest rate of US dollars will rise a lot in the 2009 which will make the long term bond become not attractive. That is a consequence of the aftermath of the recent measure by the US government. They publish a lot of money to save the market ; as a result, a significant and the most severe inflation will be coming yrs later / mid / late 2009. This coincide with the recent warren B move. He started buying US equity coz inflation will be around the corner, and holding dollars will be the most being suffered during inflation. That's his reason of why starting to acquire more equity now.
My father in law (sounds odd to say that) told me something similar I think. He says that the U.S. dollar wont stay too high for long. Its wait and see time I think. If I understand you correctly you are saying that because the U.S. has printed so much money it has put upward pressure on inflation, devaluing the long term bonds and lowering the value of the U.S. dollar?
Yes, exactly !! GERMS, you are smart , man That's why warren B now persuading people to acquire US equity. Coz during the inflation, only asset - properties, valuables, stocks will rise in value. So one should be wise to save some money and started investing at this rock bottom period, at this mood-depressing period instead of spending it somewhere unwisely.
