Not sure about that in the short term. The white dumbluck, lava bunny, kaws pushead, Black Pollard all seem to be headed down in price right now. You know the Lava Bunny story. I think you will be right in the long run but they may go down in price before they go back up. That is actually easier than toys, lots of reliable data in the markets. It is an investor’s point of view but I don't think of my toys as investments (maybe the Pollard blanks). I am just curious about pricing in thinly traded markets and the toy niche is a very interesting case study. I agree that paying crazy prices for toys is stupid, even super limited (1 of 10) RxH figures. I don’t buy them because I think I will make money, I buy them because I would rather pay $100 more today than wait for a discount. To be honest, I have directed my impulse purchasing into toys over the last 18 months and have been making less bonehead stock trades because of it. I really don’t like toys that are based on movie and tv characters. It is the randomness of SB and RxH that draws me in. When I look at them I just see the toys, they do not remind me on anything and that is the joy I find in them. I think Frank may be wrong about the lack of reference; it may be the lack of reference that makes them valuable in the future. The fact that 50-100 people from the US, Canada, and Europe are digging these toys so much in “real time” may be more important than any movie or TV show. Western actually means Art Toy to me. However, I am speaking of the stuff made by western artist for western companies and sold to people in the west (or at least 2 of the 3).
well truth be told, and I've said this before, I don't really collect toys, I collect monsters. that could be pre-existing characters or otherwise. that's what got me intially interested in any of this stuff, and as long as it's monster based I'll stay interested. it's also why I don't really like a lot of "western" vinyl. I do have a small be@rbrick collection tough, and that's only because I was buying kubricks of characters.
i'm not certain that i agree. there are definitely portions of the marketplace which are a little slower at the moment, but i don't think the market as a whole is suffering particularly. if you look at the KR BST as your sample space then things are completely fucked, but ebay sales are still relatively stable overall. rare figures are still fetching fairly consistent prices (large swings are typical in niche products). sdcc will likely bring in lots of new collectors (by lots, i mean something in the low hundreds) since there will be plenty of exposure to random people walking by (this is how i started collecting actually). there are two factors which i think are affecting current perceptions considerably. first of all, KR's output over the last 5 months has been pathetic, which has a lot of impact since they host the biggest board and have a large market share. none of the designs generated a lot of interest with the exception of filth's, and the production quality of all pieces starting with the acid head has been terrible. if the next few 8" releases were, say, ledbetter, deph, and a huck gee samurai you'd see similar furor to that of any other release. put out crap, and no one will want it. the other thing is just overproduction of platform designs, similar to the collectible card game market in the late 90s. if there are only a couple of platforms which have new designs released every once in a while, then it's easy to get excited about new things coming out. when there are a huge number of competing platforms and releases are coming out all the damn time in various colors, it's hard for the grind not to seem stale. new sculpts still generate plenty of interest. ok, that's enough for one post. if anybody gives a shit i might write more later.
When you spend the kind of cash that we all do I personally think you have to look at it from both a collectors view as well as financial/investors view..I usually dont drop huge money on anything unless I'm going to at least break even in the long..If I didnt I may as well start lighting my El Rey Del Mundos w/100 dollar bills-ROR!!!!
An extremely interesting topic. The analysis, and predictions seem very well thought out. I want to reply in depth but I have work to do, so heres my ten cents: I particularly respond to Knewnan's comments regarding having a closet full of stuff, but too lazy/no time to sell (too lazy to look back and verify). I have a garage full and a storage unit full. I basically only display my Japanese stuff, and a few Western artists (Jled, Biskup, Baseman, Kaws and the odd Kozik). One thing I keep hearing from casual conversations is that the amount of product certain artists are turning out is really making people think twice about buying their stuff....and contributing to the downturn. Certain editions of 100 should be like gold dust, but instead people can't even re-sell them at retail. I also think that paintings by artists who are popular because of their toys will not stand the test of time in terms of price. I have a few myself, but thank God I've been very selective, I love looking at them and didn't buy em for investment. Its telling when someone like Ron English, who has released a handful of toys, but rose to popularity way before the toy wave....who has a solid non-toy collector base, creates incredible quality pieces - but for some pieces charges similar prices to relative newcomers riding the toy wave. Guess which one will hold the value? The other thing thats interesting about the JP toy market is that due to the low supply and tiny collector base an individual can completely change the game world wide. Look at when Kozik went for completion - prices jumped everywhere, and then dropped back to an overall higher than previous level. Now there a few people willing to spend bank, we are again seeing consistently high prices. PS. My vote for ultimate junk piece: Skumbo!
Either Skumbo or Nings freebie lil joe-man i wanna melt the 2 i have..OK later on tonite-the lil joe sacrifice in my firepit.Will take pics..
This is an interesting conversation. I have ALWAY'S been attracted to toys with production numbers as low as possible. Maybe I have been fooling myself thinking that if I collect toy's with lower production number's then surely they may retain thier value over time. Not that I buy for profit, I collect because I dig the toy. However, I guess if I need to sell something for whatever reason, it's kinda nice to think I won't have a problem. It's been said before, collect what you really like, if you do it for profit at some point you will get burned. Western vinyl has seemed to be taking a bit of a hit in the collector market rite now, but Japan vinyl can do the same thing.That said - Gimme ALL your toys ! HeeHaa
i don't care if the toy is cheap or expensive. this have been said many times before (even as a recommendation to newbies): buy what you like. my main collection is kaiju right now but i'm pretty eclectic. i like tons of different stuff.
hmmm. scared to admit it but I think it should be obvious to any KR regulars. Or anyone really. Yes it worked very well. I am not sure how the story will end exactly.
Not a regular on KR these days, but I fit into the "anyone" category - however, I have no clue about what toy it is you manipulated. ANyone care to elaborate? Editted: The silence sounds like a cue for a "guess what toy market Knewnan manipulated" contest! C'mon Glenn, go for it!
nope. I already assume this will be quoted on KR. I am not going to give it up. (Carl, just ask yourself why I was so casual about that toy I sent you by mistake.)
OK, I know the answer then - but I never read any market manipulation into your reaction - just busy guy with lots of toys. So, I happen to know the general prices of those, but what impact did u have on the market exactly. Like u said, this will likely go elsewhere, so don't feel obligated to answer...just curious. Btw, u have mentioned before that that partuclar line was easy to get, but unless u r on the boards night and day, or had a hook up, it was next to impossible for me - and I try to keep up with things.
i assume that you're talking about the ledbetter toys, though i'm not exactly sure what you did with those that you consider to be market manipulation. so i suppose i might be wrong.
I think you can increase the value of a toy if you own enough of the run. I would estimate that if you can control 10% of the run you can increase the price people will pay by twice that amount.
