i collect some western stuff and have to say a crash is upon us. i personally believe it to be due to what scud said above. too many platform toys become real stale quick when the same design is released over and over again with inverted colors being the difference. i think it is possible for western companies to reignite their market if they do a couple things:

1. slow the fuck down! there are enough companys out there releasing these dollies so that no one company needs to release the same sculpt over and over in a new colorway every month.

2. inovate! fucking obvious i know, but even something subtle and simple can really speak loudly on a piece if you look at it as art. new sculpts by companies are ALWAYS welcome but i do realize not always realistic. take the new barbarian...yes we all want the NEW puspirate sculpt but sb took the same sculpt as the other barbs but that splatter on the visor glass...rad! lots of people are stoked on this. now you may say what the fuck is this guy saying? didn't he just say redoing a colorway on a fig is getting tired? yes i did but that leads to number...

3. lower production numbers and don't give up the info on how many were made. if you want the sharks in the water to be driven into a frenzy...throw them some chum. far too many western toys are done as runs of 500 and some are even pushing 1000. way too many out there to stir the crazy collector juices inside people. prices seem to keep rising on western pieces and the quality is marginal at times so why would you spend more money on a piece that really isn't that rare?

i have babbled enough and need to go workout. i'm sure i left something out somewhere in reguards to my points so please feel free to add to or fix any of my rants.

It is a really good time for getting some marmits and B-club, M-1 even some vintage.

Try getting a woo lately? Ouch. Seems to depend on the outrageousnes of the design. Always did.

I grubbed up heavy in the 90's on all the vintage reissues and they seem to have dropped in value. One thing...I love having them, they are simply the best most comforting toys. It doesn't bug me that they haven't gone up too much.

I really don't care about all the grafitti and gangsta toys.

Tomorrow's yard sale fodder if you ask me.

They lack that certain "timelessness" that Kaiju and patch monsters have.

glenn, as the poster boy for "reasons to not say shit here that could end up there" i recommend you don't ever tell anyone

so back on topic.....

I will make specific predictions about specific toys. I think a year from now these toy will all sell for 50% less than they do today.

White Dumbluck
Lava bunny
jLed Ice and Sno
Kaws Bronze Pushead
GID Egg [expletive deleted]

These toys will be selling below retail:
20" [expletive deleted]
Labbits
Thundermutts
Sours
Squires
[expletive deleted]'s

This does not mean I don't like the toys, I just think they will lose their fan base.

Now that I have been specific Lindsay Lohan will tell everyone she wants a Lava Bunny and Oprah will give away Bronze Pusheads to her audience

I think a few toys could be more resistant to price declines, the wood bearbrick comes to mind.

i'm still trying to figure out why the market dropping out is a bad thing, unless you are heavly invested...right?

I guess from my position... I have art toys/western Vinyl that make me happy...whether it be a toy that has a run of 50 vs. a toy that has a run of 500. am I a bad "collector" because the value of my collection dosen't really impact what I think of my collection? (thats a serious question too)

I have been lucky in collecting in that I have hardly ever had to pay more than retail for a piece I liked...so i guess, well maybe, thats why I'm not worried about the aftermarket prices.?.? But I can see what a shitty thing it would be to have a bunch of once highly sought after art toys in your closet, that are losing value...I'm not really good with money, or capitlism, or any of that market manipulation stuff. I've NEVER boughten multiples of any toy for the purpose of resell for a mark-up or to make a few extra bucks, altho there where times when I wanted to kick myself for not doing so....

I don't know...i don't see the monetary aspect of collecting, esp. for the short term, being an issue. If the value of my Anarchy [expletive deleted] drops back down to the $35 i paid for it then so be it, no big loss for me...but who's to say what the market will be like in 10 years or 20 when this stuff is considered "vintage" remember vintage is hip!

in the long run its the quality that i am mostly concerned with...good thing I don't do [expletive deleted] (except for the Kozik collection)

EXCELLENT topic by the way!

Most of the stuff in my closet are not duplicates, rather toys I bought and realized I didn't want once I saw in person (I do that a lot). They are in the closet because I didn't want to sell them right after the release and then get hammered for it. After awhile I just forgot about them.

I am actually looking forward to a crash, I would love to have a complete Biskup collection and I still need a few Kaws 5yl.

If you are willing to hang onto this stuff long enough it will probably have value again someday.

I am really more interested in why the why’s and how’s of a market crash than anything else. The consumer base for these toys has the most fascinating behaviors. Collecting these toys and being part of this community has helped me understand other markets in very interesting ways.

It is a good topic and a good line of debate to go with it.

Anyway, I think Anna is damn right about the quality concerns. Other points about saturation, insipid design and repetitiveness are valid, but the quality, or lack of it, has been very big reason in my pulling back a long way on what I'm buying. I think out of the last 4 or 5 western pieces I have picked up, at least 3 have had something wrong with them. I'm not talking minor paint problems or marks which are normal, but pieces on the wrong way, 2 left arms instead of a left an right or just deformed. It's so disheartening to open your parcel only to see you have to work to get a replacement. This has certainly slowed me right back to where I was at when I first started this gig - only what I really like and certain artists at that - just Jarvis at the moment, and probably Biskup but I can be bothered with the hysterics sourounding his releases anymore.
Hype has killed it for me too. I loved the Sours when I first saw them as I loved Monroe's work. By the time of release though I wasn't as keen, though I do love the 2 I have.

The rest of the points being made are good too. Just thought I would share on my own reasons for loosing the love.

Yep, Kidrobot has really dropped the ball, and I think it is having an impact on the scene. Releasing mediocre mini-figures is one thing. Releasing mediocre full-size figures is another. The designs on the 8" [expletive deleted] NEED to improve. I am not sure I see that happening any time soon though. All the way back in January, Kidrobot Guru said, "We have our production schedule pretty much planned out until the end of the year." Can Kidrobot afford to continue on its current path for the rest of the year? Kidrobot needs to wake the fuck up.

buying a toy you think you are going to like, but then getting it and hating it SUCKS!!!! I can only think of 1 time that happened to me (KR Tengu--broken to boot!) Being able to see the toy and feel it and examine it was once the greatest part of buying art vinyl.

I too look forward to being able to score some nice stuff that I have chosen not to buy because of pricing. Squires instantly come into mind!

I'm curious about whats polluting your closet knewner

"They are in the closet because I didn't want to sell them right after the release and then get hammered for it."

I think you could handle the hammering...

i don't really know whats going on in western vinyl anymore, it gives me a headache to be honest.

As much as i love toys by the likes of Biskup and a few other artists, after becoming progressively more and more involved with JP toys over the last year, there is no looking back.

Japanese toys completely changed collecting for me. I stopped desiring toys simply cuz they were cool or cute (western vinyl syndrome - like picking up a slurpee if you are in the mood then realizing it was trash) and discovered toys that are actually truly engaging.
I think Paul said it best a bit earlier in this thread.. something about his repros being "comforting"... and that really captures it for me too. i feel so at home with 99 percent of my collection. ('cept those closet leftovers. lol)

Guess all i'm saying is that i'm so happy to have begun a long love affair with Kaiju... fight figures.. whatever. i'm effing happy

hey, I happen to like Slurpees!!!

me too, but they don't last long ya know? and you get a cold headache

I've been thinking about it. I really don't think we are amidst a crash... I just think that when certain collectors wake up one day, look in their closet and realize "what the FUCK did I just do!?". they come up with an illusion that the sky is falling. You have created a booming and busting industry in your head... in fact, you have only come up with the realization that you have a spending/buying problem. seek help.

if it looks cool, it will always sell.

I guess Rino would rather make a veiled personal attack than refute my arguments.

I honestly don't really care about the toys in my closet, most of the stuff I don't even think I could sell and it probably only cost me $500-700 total so I am not that concerned about losing my cash. I sold off all the valuable stuff I had and no longer wanted months ago. Besides the Biskup stuff I paid retail for most of my western vinyl collection.

I actually think a price correction would be a very healthy event for the toy market right now. Currently the nonprofessional retailers (i.e. flippers) are feeling the crunch because they cannot make a profit on most toys being released. The pull back we are seeing will eventually make its way to the retailers and eventually the manufactures and designers. I think thinning the herd is probably necessary at this point because the market is saturated with product.

I also think other factors are at play. A few months ago when 3 full sets of jLed toys sold for around $2000 each right before the gallery1988 show. I think this made a lot of the more seasoned collectors take a step back and reassess. Two of the sellers turned around and bought original artwork from jLed for the same price they had sold the toys for. That was the moment I realized that the nature of the toy market had changed. When you can sell your toys to buy originals from the same artist something is out of balance.

I also think most people eventually face “space” problems. I would guess after 18 months of collecting 90% of collectors have run out of space. Once you run out of space most people will sell something every time they buy something so they don’t end up with closets full of stuff. This is causing loads of stuff to show up for sale in the aftermarket and will continue to put pressure on the aftermarket.

Tell that to the millons of peeps that lost a fortune w/the comic crash years ago..It can and prolly will happen eventually
Nobodys saying the market wont recoupe but its def looking grim right now

^ hey knewnan, sorry if that came off as a personal attack... I just wanted to offer a different perspective and food for thought. I just know if I put as much into toys as you, it would put me in financial ruin (I'm not saying it puts you in that position... but if you have the amount of money I currently have it would). What I sorta meant is that if a collector is getting burnt out, their perceptions may be skewed (maybe not in your case... but it could happen, right?)

As with comics, it crashed and the days of buying 20 copies of various issues is over... but what has and will survive is comics with quality writing and art... and I don't think that will ever die and will always have fans (and various key issues will always be sought).

For sure-I managed to sell all of my comics right before the crash and made a bundle but i did save all of my vintage SGT Rocks and love em!!!They are all worth good cash too but I wont ever sell them..Have had them since my teen years.

I refocused my collection earlier this year, basically I buy western vinyl only if I have or want an original work from the artist at this point. The Kozik sell off kind of forced me to sell loads of stuff I didn't want. So I am not exhausted, I haven't spent more than $1000 on western vinyl all year, but I am trying to decide if I should start putting a little cash away so I can grab deals in the event of a crash.

Just to be clear, I don't think great toys will be worthless, but I also don't think a Lava bunny should cost $800 (or even $600). What I think will happen is you will see accelerated selling and eventually a panic by people who can't afford to lose all the money invested in their toys. It is during the panic that you want to have some cash on hand to grab good deals.

I hope that once the panic selling is over the prices should start to climb again but slowly and at a much more sustainable rate. I don't think the great toys will sell for less than retail but they won't cost 5-10x retail either.

People should always consider the total value of any toy run. For example, if a Lava Bunny is worth $800 and there are 70 of them (50 regular + 20 PP) then the entire run of Lava's is worth 56,000. That would buy most of the jLed paintings so I do not think that price is sustainable. On the other hand 100 red sours for $200 is $20,000 which is about the value of all the paintings at any one show, which seems more sustainable.

I also want to state again that I don't really care about the value of my collection but I am interested in the pricing of these toys.

ok, i get the point. but your first post didn't really express that though. i care about the value of my collection if i ever want to sell.

I think if people bought things for what they were intrinsically made for, then this speculation market wouldn't exist. The quality of things wouldn't go down and the market wouldn't be flooded with crap. I believe that's why jp vynil will always retain its value. The western vynil is a boil about to burst because they haven't learned anything from the comic industry's mistakes. Oh well, live and learn, again and again.

Great topic. It reminds me of that book "Tipping Point," if I recall correctly. My impression is that there is a dynamic between the subjective ("I buy what I like") and objective ("do other people like this?") aspects of collecting. The objective aspect is almost always measured by resale price. If something is collectable, i.e., valued, is it a matter of subjective or objective aspects? Probably both.

These websites are kind of like steroids or speed for the dynamic between these two aspects of collecting vinyl toys. Word of mouth is extremely fast.

If you like one toy, and paid $50 retail for it, if it's reselling for $5, that is going to have some impact on your subjective view of the toy, even if it is very minor. The reverse is also true — if you don't like a toy, but the price is going through the roof, that will impact your subjective view.

My impression from most of the poeple who post on this board is that the objective impacts the subjective far less than for the average collector — many people here would welcome a crash, so long as it happens after they have a chance to unload their crap. So the impressionable types will lurk to find out what's hot, and snap it up to be cool (which is the Tipping reference).

The objective view then gets overdeveloped, out of proportion to anyone's subjective view.For example, Lava Bunnies are cool, but no way are they THAT cool. Someone with a strong sense of subjective values who knows they can spend $800 on better stuff, will unload the Lava Bunny, and that may have a rippling effect. If the imbalance between subjective and objective aspects gets too high, crash. In this respect, when flippers drive up prices, they bring about the crash in the market that otherwise sustains them.

Unbelieviably hard to predict, I would imagine. Would love to see Knewnan's data, must be fun to watch this in action.

Ah hell, I just made all that up. I'm with Jltohru, Western Vinyl gives me a headache, but I'll still be there at the front of the line for Red Sour crash — loves me some Brendan Monroe.

Great topic. I see a crash coming for many of the reasons stated already but also I think people don't like to be taken for granted or manipulated by manufacuters. This happens all the time, but when people realize it's happening they loose interest.

Examples: I think the quality control on the KR toys is really pretty bad. People have complained about it but it seems little to nothing has been done so one can assume that KR is taking their fan base for granted. Throw in the price and frequency increases and people will just get tired of trying to keep up.

When Toy2R released the Biskup 8" [expletive deleted] with a chase figure at a retail of $80 - $90 it was a manipulation. If you wanted the chase you'd possibly have to buy several boxes to find one, or enter a contest to win the right to buy one at above retail, or jump throgh some kind of hoop or another. It's one thing to have a chase on a $5 - $8 figure, to have a chase on a $80 - $90 figure is another thing altogether. For me it was a complete turn-off. I was really lucky and traded a figure that I had no interest in for the GID, so it cost me nothing (other than the $39 I had paid for the figure I traded it for. Had that chase fiasco not happened I would have probably bought the Soto 8" Egg, but I decided not to because I was pissed at the manipulation. And as big of a Biskup collector as I am, I don't see myself buying the SDCC Blue Polska colorway....

I have been very lucky in my toy collecting life, paying over retail for only a few pieces none of which I would ever sell (except if I were on skid row). But I have gotten tired of the nature of the "scene" from the manufacuters lack of regard, to the flippers, and even tired of myself for sitting in front of a computer screen hitting that refresh button to get a rare toy when I could be doing something more constructive with my time.

I do have a closet full of stuff I've been meaning to sell for a couple of months but I've been too damn lazy. Sooner or later I'll get to it.

i think if nichole came back to the KR boards and was everybodys mother figure like the old days the market for western vinyl would go back up

i don't know about that, but she is surely missed.

I miss Nichole laying the smackdown like in the good ol' days...